Trump's style of politics: the till wins

While I was trying to interpret in that light the policy of US President Trump, who said throughout the entire election campaign and afterwards that he came not to start wars but to end them, on Syria and Gaza, it was announced the day before yesterday that he had ordered an attack on Yemen. This, of course, could not be what one would expect from someone who has declared a mission of ending wars, but at the same time, since it was Trump who made the pledge, it did not come as much of a surprise either, as a behavior confirming the idea that anything can be expected of him.

A person from whom everything is expected is someone whose moves cannot be foreseen, and such unpredictability can only be ascribed to madmen. Trump's style in his attitudes and moves, which surpasses all diplomatic molds and conventions, allows this ascription to be made more and more after a certain point. Yet this would undoubtedly be too superficial a perception for someone who has always won and always accumulated up to now, and who has afterwards managed to remain at the top for so long. Even before becoming president, Trump was someone who managed to become a king in the business world, that is, in a realm where real cutthroat competition and struggle are at stake. He may be the king of the real estate world, but he is also a businessman who has casinos in Las Vegas. He even has quite a few famous clients, some of them leaders of the Middle East.

THE HOUSE ALWAYS WINS

The most basic rule of the world of gambling is that the winner is always the house. The house has a level at which it makes even the most skilled players play on its behalf and turns them into the agents of its own profit. We cannot say that this profession of Trump's is not reflected in his style of politics. It makes one think that behind his words and behavior, which at first and even at second glance look insane, spoiled or tactless, there is a game. The efforts of all the wise people of the world to interpret and fish out a stone he has thrown into a well are themselves part of his game. There is a very high probability that in the meantime he is in yet another calculation in which he himself will win.

Those who know me know that I do not have a style of analysis that attributes such deep sainthood or great minds to anyone's behavior. But it is quite clear that behind these extreme behaviors of Trump there is no randomness without purpose, though the plan behind his head may well not be at all what it appears. So it falls to us, the wise ones, to interpret what this president, whom we still take for a madman, does. In card games, in which he is a great expert, players at least try to hide their cards in the hope of beating their rivals and winning the game; if he appears to be playing all his cards so openly, one must think that he has other cards he is hiding. Undoubtedly this will require straining the imagination for political analysis more than ever before. This is the point to which Trump's style of politics will have brought us.

THE BEFORE AND AFTER OF TRUMP'S DEPORTATION PLAN

For example, as Dr. Sami al-Aryan also pointed out on tezkire.net, some analysts think that Trump's statement during Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington may have been an attempt to obstruct the efforts of the Israeli Prime Minister, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court as a war criminal, to obtain a green light for restarting the war of annihilation in Gaza.

The deportation plan he put forward for the Gazans is, of course, an extreme idea, and there is no reasonable answer to how Trump, who has ruled out the use of military force, could reach the goal that the Zionist regime failed to reach despite a 15-month genocidal war with all American support. Indeed, the rejection of the plan by all its components has already shown that it was doomed to failure, but for Trump this was not a card thrown away in vain. Did he, in return, perhaps show someone its impossibility?

Al-Aryan sees this stance of Trump, the man of big real estate deals, which would be regarded as part of his negotiating strategy, as consistent with his own strategy outlined in his famous book The Art of the Deal. In his book Trump says that a successful negotiator should begin with the most extreme and harsh positions, thereby provoking the other side into making significant concessions and bringing it closer to his own position even before negotiations begin.

It appears that the United States, which has evidently encouraged and even pressured the SDF in Syria to sit at the table with the Syrian government, has angered Israel because of this. This shows that Trump is at least consistent in the "America first" policy he has declared from the beginning.

WHAT WILL TRUMP DO IN YEMEN?

So what exactly is this war he has started in Yemen? Undoubtedly it is impossible for the United States not to know that an attack that may perhaps continue only with air strikes will not produce a result in Yemen. A United States that has only recently exited Afghanistan in defeat cannot be expected to embark on an adventure fated to end the same way. Therefore, it is far more likely that this attack is more of a show along the lines of "let some people see that we are fighting the Houthis" than an effort to destroy the Houthis or push them back. The Houthis' defiant stance in the name of solidarity with Gaza, the damage they have done to commercial ships and their obstruction of sea lane transport have created an expectation of a harsh stance against them. Trump, who in the election campaign accused Biden of being soft, has needed to respond on this matter especially to the expectations of Republican voters who are pro-Israel.

However, this response does not mean entering into a direct and long-term war. Because even a limited occupation of ports or coastal areas in Yemen carries great risks for the United States. Still, these limited attacks on the Houthis can be used as a card to pressure Iran and bring it to the negotiating table.

Yemen's rugged geography and mountainous regions make it difficult for the United States to carry out effective military operations and would make it relive the Afghanistan experience once again. This points to the difficulty of the United States in Yemen despite all its military power, but at the same time the commitment of the Arab Coalition to the political settlement process ultimately restricts Trump's moves in this matter. Saudi Arabia and its allies have started a political settlement process in the Yemen crisis, even if it is advancing very slowly. For the United States to act ignoring the plans of its own allies may perhaps be compatible with Trump's style of politics, but in the end there is a cost to doing everything in spite of one's allies.

Of course the house always wins, but no one can be kept at the table without giving the other players the feeling that they are winning too.