Even if it confuses, listening to the voice of the people…

From the first days of 2012, the results of public opinion polls on the political situation and the agenda began to be published one after another. Provided they are conducted in accordance with their rules and methods, opinion polls are very important for those who make politics or who have some thought about society. In my view, one of the most important parameters of what we can now comfortably call the "new" Turkey is that listening to the voice of society in the domestic and foreign policies pursued has become an indisputable value.

Until ten years ago, what the people thought about any subject seemed to matter not at all to those who made politics. Whoever came to power once had no hope of coming to power again the next time, because those who appeared to be making politics had no authority over the politics they made. Most of them were implementing programs cooked up and served to them by centers of tutelage that had no obligation to answer to the people. Since there was no chance of those programs being accepted by the people, those who implemented them could not obtain a mandate from the people again. That is why every government was nothing but a single-use tool for the centers of tutelage. What had to be done in each period was got done, and then the power alternatives that had temporarily instilled hope in the people lined up to fulfill the next demands.

What was hard to understand at first glance was the officiousness of politicians who had to do what they were ordered "even knowing it would cost them their political lives" (as in the closing of the middle sections of the İHLs). And indeed, what they did cost them their political lives very quickly. Politics turned into a field in which, from one election to the next, no party felt the slightest trust among the people. That being so, opinion polls also had little meaning. There was no point in learning the situation and spoiling morale early. As a once-mighty pasha put it to Taha Akyol, "determination and resolve were spoiled when sociologists were consulted", because they confused minds by showing how what was being done was received among the people.

What looked like complete "clarity of mind and resolve" in the soldiers meant helpless and fatalistic submission for the politicians.

Yet now there is a new Turkey, and one of the most important indicators of this Turkey is the continuous and lively communication between the people and the men of state. The channels of communication that Parliament Speaker Cemil Çiçek, who is conducting work for a new Constitution with unprecedented effort and excitement, is trying to open in order to secure public participation and obtain its views are in themselves a magnificent example. The work, which at first had only the contribution of Turgut Özal University, now has views submitted by some 65 universities and about as many civil society organizations. This is the politics and the constitution of the new Turkey. May God see it through to completion.

The first opinion polls of the new year were published by Andy & Ar, Metropoll, Anar and the Strategic Thinking Institute (SDE). What is remarkable in all of them is in particular that the results on the political situation turn out very close to one another, and that, since they were conducted very close in time, the surveys also serve to test each other. Overall, the public's views on certain issues and its reactions to certain policies are increasingly measured rapidly, and this becomes seriously determinative of policy practices. In this respect, opinion polls in the new Turkey can in a sense be said to constitute one of the most important channels of direct democracy.

The study that SDE conducts every three months with Area Research took the form this time of an assessment of the events of 2011. The survey covered the electoral support of political parties, voters' voting behavior, the performance of the government and its policies, opinions about statesmen and politicians, the PKK–KCK and terror operations, the debates on the 1938 Dersim events, the presidency, foreign policy and the EU, and other agenda topics. Based on the NUTS-1 regionalization system, 58 districts and city centers in a total of 14 provinces were taken as the basis, and in these centers it was carried out between 23 and 27 December 2011 with 2,102 people with voter status.

About six months after the last elections there is no serious change in the picture, apart from a shift of about 3 points in favor of the AK Parti and 1-2 points against the CHP. Among the AK Parti's actions, which are liked at a rate of 54.1 percent in total, health ranks first (66.1), education second (56.7), foreign policy third (56.1), and economic policies fourth (53.8). The government's policies in the field of combating terror are found positive at 52.1 percent; its policies against corruption at 44.1 percent; and its democratic opening policies at 40.4 percent.

An interesting piece of data in the survey is that all the leaders except Kılıçdaroğlu are viewed favorably at a rate above the votes their parties received in the elections: Erdoğan (58.9), Kılıçdaroğlu (25.2), Bahçeli (20.4), Demirtaş (9.1). The existence of cross-over between parties in favorable impressions of leaders is shown in all the other questions as well. This in fact shows that the permeability between parties has become considerably more flexible than in the past. In a situation where the biggest determinant of voter preference is still leaders rather than party policies or discourse, what consequences or meanings this has can of course be dwelt on at length.

There are plenty of other striking results from SDE's annual assessment survey. But among the important findings that should be underlined is that, as one of the most important events of the past year, the Dersim debate and the KCK operations were received rather favorably by society. In particular, while a 56 percent segment finds the Dersim debate partly or wholly positive, only a 23.9 percent segment finds it negative.

The serious decline in the public's attitude and expectations regarding the EU is also a finding that must be noted. EU support appears to have fallen well below 50 percent. Undoubtedly, in this, the effect of the EU's stalling attitude, as well as of a growing self-confidence in Turkey and a lack of felt need, should now draw attention as a factor (for the details of the survey, see www.sde.org.tr).