Not even democracy is medicine for Israel

The coalition talks that continued in Israel after the elections held in March concluded only a few hours before the deadline given to Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu by President Rivlin. After Netanyahu won the elections, 51 members of parliament had written a letter to President Rivlin recommending that the new government be formed by Netanyahu, but after Avigdor Lieberman announced that he would not take part in the coalition this term, Netanyahu's chances of forming a government had become difficult in terms of parliamentary arithmetic.

The minimum number of representatives needed to form a government in the 120-seat Israeli parliament was 61. Netanyahu will head a coalition that reaches this number right on the limit.

In Israel, which has been governed by coalitions since its founding, the new coalition government consists of 5 parties. The coalition, made up of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, the HaBayit HaYehudi Party of Naftali Bennett, the former Minister of the Economy, the Shas and United Torah Judaism parties known as ultra-Zionist / ultra-Judaist, as well as the Kulanu party that positions itself on the center right, will probably face a rather heated domestic and foreign policy agenda.

The primary problem will most likely be keeping the formed government going. For the reform proposals that Netanyahu brought in the previous term had been blocked by Shas and United Torah Judaism.

How the ministries will be shared among the parties entering the coalition also emerges as a separate problem. Under Israeli practice, Netanyahu, who formed the coalition, had one more week to form the Cabinet. As of today, Netanyahu has 2 days left to submit the Cabinet list to the Knesset.

As will be recalled, Naftali Bennett had informed Netanyahu in a message that they would remain in opposition if the Ministry of Justice were not given to their party. That the coalition was formed with HaBayit HaYehudi gives the impression that Netanyahu gave Bennett what he wanted. Another ministry reportedly given to Bennett's party is the Ministry of Education, which is extremely important to the ultra parties in the country.

Therefore, it is claimed that giving ministries such as Education and Justice to the HaBayit HaYehudi party in the new government has created serious discomfort in the Shas and United Torah Judaism parties.

Israel is in fact a country whose economic problems are growing by the day and in which the discomfort of the middle classes over the erosion of the level of prosperity is increasing by the day. In this election, the said erosion of prosperity seems to have led Israeli voters to radicalize politically and to turn to parties with pronounced fascistic tendencies. Moreover, the difficulty of the formed government working in harmony because of existing problems, and the possibility of any party withdrawing from the coalition and bringing down the government, may mean the beginning of an unstable period in Israeli domestic politics. Time will show how Israeli society, which has lost its common sense and become marginalized because of the security policies followed especially during the Sharon and Netanyahu governments, will evaluate the debates within the government and how it may be affected by them.

But we can already say that, in order to remain Prime Minister, Netanyahu will try to use foreign policy as an apparatus that mobilizes fascism in Israel and isolates the disagreements among the coalition parties. At this point, provoking the Peace Negotiations being pursued with Palestine emerges as one of Netanyahu's most important options.

All of the parties forming the coalition, except Kulanu, argue that the Peace Process being conducted with Palestine should be terminated. Furthermore, all the parties in the coalition are united on the deepening of Israel's occupation of Palestinian lands, the construction of new settlements, and the increase of state aid to the Heredim, which can be defined as the Orthodox form of Judaism. It is therefore possible to predict that when a crisis emerges in the coalition, the first thing Netanyahu will turn to will be Gaza or other Palestinian lands.

Especially because of the preliminary examination decision taken by the International Criminal Court on whether Israel's actions in Palestinian lands constitute war crimes, developments in the coming days may result in Netanyahu calling an early election, as he did in the previous term, in order to turn to his advantage the far-right atmosphere likely to rise in Israeli society. The presence in the government of politicians like Naftali Bennett, who has said that the homes of Palestinian children who throw stones should be bombed, also brings to mind the possibility of new Israeli massacres against Gaza.

One of the most important pillars of Obama's election campaign was relations with the Obama administration. Netanyahu, who first walked away from the peace negotiation table, in a sense leaving Obama in the lurch, then, against Obama's consent, delivered a speech in the US House of Representatives opposing the nuclear agreement to be reached with Iran, seeking to snatch a role from Obama in Obama's own country. In his election campaign he cultivated the image of a Prime Minister who defends Israel's rights in spite of everyone, including the US. At this point, Netanyahu may take steps that will try to halt the process of normalization of US relations with Iran. The Iranian threat has always been a rhetoric bought by the Israeli voter.

It can already be said that the new government will follow classic Netanyahu politics in relations with Turkey as well. There is no one who does not know that Netanyahu is bothered by Turkey, which maintains a resolute stance in all international forums against the war crimes committed by Israel.

In short, the new government to be formed in Israel has nothing new to say about regional peace or Israeli foreign policy. The fascistic coloring intensifying inside the country is likely to become pronounced in foreign policy as well. It seems very likely that in the coming period we will see an Israel whose domestic politics, rather than its foreign policy, is in motion.