Poll by poll, tell me…

From the moment the official calendar for the presidential and parliamentary elections began to run, the agenda has been locked onto 14 May in a way that leaves no room for any subject other than politics. Even the life, at the top of the agenda, of the disaster of the century that cost the lives of 50 thousand of our citizens seems to have been completed, with the election agenda prevailing, in a time wildly out of proportion to the scale of the disaster.

The election agenda is like a layer of sound covering events each bigger than the last: the Russia-Ukraine War entering its second year, the mass protests in France, the quite imminent possibility of Trump's arrest, the most important developments of the decade in Turkey-Egypt rapprochement, the President's opening of the Boron Carbide Production Facility in Bandırma, Balıkesir, the first products of TOGG coming off the production line and orders beginning to be taken, and, after Turkey's first National Combat Aircraft (MMU), the HÜRJET taking to the runway as well...

We are heading into the election that will affect world balances the most among the many elections to be held around the world in 2023. This is how the world press and international circles assess the elections. It is not hidden at all that Erdoğan is today a source of discomfort within the existing world order. That is why it is no secret that the same world supports the opposition against Erdoğan. As for whether the expectations from this support will yield results beneficial to Turkey, of course nobody expects that.

None of the international circles that are bothered by the Erdoğan administration today want anything for Turkey; they are not at all excited followers of a development to Turkey's benefit. Do Greece, the USA, Europe want Turkey to be a more democratic country? Do they have a concern called democracy? Have they come to wish for strengthening the level of prosperity of its people? Never...

Let no one deceive anyone. Neither the USA nor Europe has any real concern or expectation about any Islamic world becoming more democratic. They want administrations that can be more compatible with their own agendas and interests, and this is in fact not very possible in democratic regimes. That is why they get along far better with undemocratic authoritarian regimes throughout the entire Islamic world.

Their problem with Erdoğan is also not that he is not democratic enough, but that he is more democratic than necessary. That he represents his own people, not them. Had it been otherwise, they would not have such close relations with Middle Eastern regimes where democracy is never even mentioned. That is why, whatever the opposition promises the people of Turkey today, it promises only concessions to international circles, and this makes the opposition the favorite among some international circles.

Polls are one of the routines of the election process. When done properly in technical terms, healthy data on general trends over a given period can be obtained, but the biggest obstacle to doing them properly is generally that they are done to order. When the commissioning organizations genuinely want to determine what is really happening in the field, the problem is relatively much smaller, but when they generally want not what is happening in the field but the results they wish for, poll results are no different from saying amen to a prayer.

Speaking of the international community, the poll published by Reuters, which has taken its side on the political spectrum in Turkey from the beginning, is like an amen to the prayers they have been routinely making for 20 years. A poll that sees or shows a 10-point difference between Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu in favor of the latter is a complete CHP dream. Of course we are not surprised at the CHP's dream being interpreted by an organization like Reuters. But on this occasion let us recall some general facts about polls that concern everyone.

First of all, new communication techniques, computers, phones and social media accounts have brought the polling business to a very low state. Besides providing some conveniences, they also allow every kind of trick to be done easily. These are satanic devices that can answer prayers immediately and whenever you wish. But they mislead most of all the very people who make the prayer.

Perhaps they supply the rotten material they want to the political fops who wish to market themselves to the political party they have applied to. But in the end they mislead and make one put on airs early, airs that will later deflate very badly and crash to the ground.

A poll is a job that can be handled by those who have really done it according to proper procedure and who can really ask what is in the field, whether they like it or not. First of all, the person doing the poll must have no interest or stake in the results. In the other case, the polling process is no different from the question, "Poll, poll, tell me, is there anyone above me?"

One of the AK Parti's strongest sides from the beginning has been its performance in conducting public opinion research without loading a result onto it in advance. The party leadership, especially Erdoğan, has cared about testing itself by always conducting cross polls that test one another regarding the echoes of its policies. There is, to be sure, a general impression that sociological research has recently not been given as much importance as before, but interest in this matter has never been lacking, and this has made a serious difference from its rivals.

So much so that, as I mentioned before, years ago when people asked Kılıçdaroğlu, "The AK Parti is constantly conducting polls, do you ever do any?", he answered, "We have no money to spend on polls; we allocate our budget more to advertising." Thus he in fact showed how far he is from political dialogue, that is, from taking the pulse of the people and being in a dialogue with the people. Political advertising is the business of steering the people without listening to them, by one-sidedly, with an elitist arrogance, presenting yourself to them, by conducting perception operations. A poll, however, requires you to listen to the people whose politics you are doing. It entails keeping your ear open to the voice of the people, constantly listening to the people's concerns, and taking care to have the people constantly approve the politics you will conduct and the programs you will implement.

Now we see that the CHP is publishing many polls, having them done by companies close to itself, and most are polls like a CHP prayer. In other words, we would have liked to get the impression from this that the CHP has discovered the importance of conducting polls instead of advertising, but it seems as though the situation continues in the same vein, with one difference:

The CHP does its polls not to take the pulse of the people or to test its politics or discourse, but by turning polls it has obtained by wishing for them, or fabricated, into material for advertising and propaganda.