The end of the road from Reyhanlı is in sight

The terrorist attack in Reyhaniye reminded us, in the most violent way, of the days of horror we have been trying to forget within the resolution process we are going through. Indeed, this is more than a reminder, with a toll that surpasses all the terrorist attacks so far. The attack, in which 46 people lost their lives and more than 100 of our people were wounded, has been discussed at length, as we have become accustomed to, with regard to its message or target, and will continue to be discussed.

According to the first findings, the identities of the attackers appear to be known, and from the outset this attack seems to be no different from the usual suspects that were anticipated. In that case it becomes easier to talk about the meaning or the target of the attack.

Let us first consider a possibility that was voiced from the very beginning: I am referring to the thesis that the attack was the plan of the US, which is trying to drag Turkey into a war in Syria and to pressure Turkey to that end. The statements Prime Minister Erdoğan made in an interview with the American television network NBC only two days before the attack, which both the prime minister and the channel felt a need to correct, in their corrected form clearly foresaw that Turkey would support a possible no-fly zone enforced by the US in Syria. Truly, it is not the US but Turkey itself that has long been demanding an intervention in Syria, which has become a humanitarian and urgent necessity. However, it is judged that it would be sufficient even if this intervention remained at the level of a measure against the air power and missiles that the Assad regime uses in massacres against its own people, rather than a ground operation.

Truly, the only thing preventing the increasingly widespread popular uprising against the Assad regime from reaching a result is the air and missile attacks of the Baath regime, which make no distinction between civilians, women and children. Assad, who would have no chance of holding on in the face of a no-fly zone, would not require any additional external intervention. In that case, a US demand that Turkey enter Syria would have no logical side to it at all, and there is no need for such a thing either.

The stranger aspect of the matter is that the US has in any case never made such a request of Turkey in any meeting. In that case, why would the US want, through such an indirect route, a thing it has never requested of Turkey in direct contacts, through this strange path where the likelihood of not being understood or being misunderstood is higher? It is not as if there were a communication problem between Turkey and the US blocking the flow of messages on this subject.

Even though it has made no such direct request, the possibility of forcing Turkey into Syria through such a manipulation cannot, of course, be theoretically ruled out. But for that, a more logical and realistic explanation must be found of what kind of gain it would have from this in the current situation.

Yet the first data emerging from the investigation of the incident show that the act was in any case carried out by groups linked to the Syrian intelligence services. The Baath regime thereby stages a kind of show of force, giving the message that it can have such a deadly effect in a single act. On the one hand it is trying to say that it has not collapsed and is still standing. With this show of force it also tries to show that it can stir up Turkey's internal affairs whenever it wishes. Yet the fact that it can do so much harm should be regarded precisely as a greater sign of its collapse. The most dangerous moments for such dictators are the stages of exhaustion when they have written everything off. In the meantime they can carry out enormous actions and therefore can do a great deal of harm. The regime may also use chemical weapons, but this shows not the greatness of its power but only that it is now resorting to its last trump cards. Once this path is entered, it has itself become aware that there is no return. There is also a psychology to this matter, and the state of mind entered at this stage is focused only on revenge, on an angry retaliation.

Whatever the results of the traffic that has begun in recent days between the US and Russia, or of other diplomatic developments, the destination of Assad and his regime, having come to this point, is clear. Moreover, however and by whomever he is being kept on his feet, it will go head over heels together with him.