What kind of model is Turkey, and for whom?

ATHENS

The change Turkey has been going through for the past 9 years has created a distinctive perception of balance, through its direct or indirect effects, not only within Turkey but in the region and in a wider geography. This can be seen both from the Arab revolutions and from Europe. Whether Turkey can be a model for the Arab world, which is living through its own revolutions, has been much discussed and will continue to be discussed. When Turkey itself is still searching for its own model, and has not yet made its own democratization adequate, how and for whom it could be a model is of course a serious question. However, one should not expect the Arab world to take Turkey as a model in its present state in any case.

Perhaps what is taken, or expected to be taken, from Turkey as a model is not the current political system but the style of national or international politics it has displayed over the past 9 years. We can characterize this style of politics simply as an effort to be aware of one's power and influence and not to hesitate to use it to the fullest in changing one's own fate in one's own favor.

In a way, this is also one of the best definitions of the concept of politics. Politics is the performance and the pursuit of turning a situation in one's own favor, within accepted rules, in a milieu where other actors are also recognized. Incapacity, an inferiority complex, fatalism, inflexible stubbornness, insistence on having one's own way, taboos that block the way to options, and personal weaknesses that affect performance can be seen as important obstacles to political effectiveness.

In Arab countries, there is a style of politics in which leaders show complete incapacity in the face of Israeli and US power, display no will whatsoever to change the situation in favor of themselves and their societies, and have no pursuit other than the concern of remaining in power. The abandonment of this style of politics is probably cared about far more than the question of what kind of system is envisaged for the country. That is why a style of politics that says "no" to the US when necessary, says "one minute" to Israel, stands behind its ship going to aid Gaza and fights that battle to the end has been very attractive to the Arab world. That this leadership has also been successful with both its economic programs and its political reforms increases the academic, intellectual and even popular interest in Turkey. This interest does not mean that Turkey's system in its present state is being taken as a model. Moreover, this interest is seen not only in the Arab world but at present in many countries of the world.

CRISIS-HIT GREECE'S EXPECTATION OF A STABLE TURKEY

In Athens, for example, where I had to explain things close to the above in response to a question, there is a serious revival of interest and sympathy toward Turkey over the past 9 years. Despite the serious crisis they are going through, the Greeks follow Turkey with attention and interest. Two days ago, a conference was held at the Greek Foreign Ministry in which possible scenarios for after Turkey's 12 June elections were assessed. Soli Özel, Asaf Savaş Akat, Ferda Keskin and I attended from Turkey the conference organized by the Institute of Strategic Thinking and Development Studies (ISTAME), a think tank affiliated with Andeas Papanderu. We tried to evaluate Turkey's election process and its economic, political and international conditions together with post-election forecasts. While we were speaking, a little further away young people were staging protest actions accusing the government of corruption, of eating up EU money and of selling off the Greek islands.

After the conference, from the Greek academics with whom we chatted we heard quite a few anecdotes about the radically changing perception of Turkey in Greek public opinion over the past 9 years. The main factor in this change is, to a large extent, Erdoğan's person. What is interesting is that this perception of Erdoğan's person works together with the idea, just as among the Arab peoples, that one of Greece's most important problems is leadership. However, in Greece, unlike in intellectual assessments, mass reactions against the government bring to the fore more right-wing-nationalist, inward-turning movements.

NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES' ELITES' PERCEPTION OF TURKEY'S FOREIGN POLICY

The data of the interesting field study titled "How Do the Elites of Neighboring Countries Perceive Turkey's Foreign Policy?", presented to the public in recent days by Assoc. Prof. Dr. Savaş Genç of Fatih University and 5 fellow academics, is of a kind that will bring a separate dimension to all that has been said.

The research was carried out through in-depth interviews with, and analyses of, between 30 and 100 bureaucrats, academics, journalists and intellectuals in each of the countries that have a land border with Turkey.

One important result of the research is that the neighboring countries see Turkey first when it comes to regional power. However, when assessed by region, while Turkey stands out in the Balkans, it is seen that in the Caucasus and in the Middle East Turkey is not thought of as a primary regional power. It determines that, in the eyes of the neighbors, Russia in the Caucasus and Iran in the Middle East are the rival regional powers to Turkey.

When they were asked in the research which country they would prefer if a problem arose in their own country and they had to go to another, it was seen that in all countries except Iran a large majority chose Turkey. These data show that the idea that Turkey is surrounded by enemies on all four sides is a complete superstition. Among the elites of neighboring countries at least, Turkey is far more a rising star than an enemy, and it has a perception of being highly reassuring in that it pursues its policies toward both East and West on a strategically balanced and peaceful basis..

In short, Turkey, which is also searching for its own model through the style of politics it displays, is a model precisely in this "searching" quality, and surely not when its current structure is taken as the datum.