The place of the Caucasus in the new world order

BAKU

Trump is, undisputedly, the most blunt of all US presidents so far. With what he says he strips off all the stylish garments that have been draped over US foreign policy until now, throws away the masks it has worn, and lays bare, in all its fearsomeness and contradictions, the worldview of a colossal power in all its nakedness.

With his courageously blunt manner, he in fact confesses all of the US's thefts. He says that from now on we will help only the countries that are friends to us. In saying that America has to think only of its own interests and should not spend its energy protecting other countries, he implies that things had until now been otherwise, which, despite all his bluntness, is of course very far from expressing the truth. He merely bluntly reflects his own, or the Americans', theft in how they have looked at the matter.

Otherwise, that there is no affair in which the US has not looked after its own interests is something known that needs no signaling.

What offends Trump's eye is that other nations, other states, also come out ahead in the US's international relations. He looks at it like greedy partners who, ignoring what they themselves gain, magnify their partner's gain in their eyes. Yet his own gain depends on his partner's gain. If his partner does not gain, he himself will not be able to gain either.

In the business world, are not many partnerships broken up by just such a greedy envy? However much rationality develops, in relations among people there can be no complete deliverance from these simple, archaic, primitive feelings of avarice and envy.

Although it may be assumed that affairs among states should proceed differently and on a more rational basis, many far different factors come into play and set off the avarice and envy you know. You may call it national avarice, national envy.

The logic of international relations at which the US under the Trump administration finally arrives, by ignoring globalization and "now giving it up," is an exchange in which only the US will come out ahead and no one but itself can gain. Even in everyday trade it is impossible to sustain an exchange in which only one side comes out ahead.

Is globalization really ending with this attitude? Let us continue to focus on this question later. But this attitude of the US in fact shows, in one respect, that we are on the threshold of a new world order.

There is no turning back from globalization. In and of itself globalization is now a process that goes on despite America, but where it will go will be determined by the activity of possible international actors.

For two days we have been in Baku on account of the Strategic Congress on the Caucasus organized by the Institute of Strategic Thinking together with TİKA, the Turkish Historical Society and the Azerbaijan Institute of History. The Caucasus is vast and is one of the world's most important geographies, a region that can provide energy supply to the broad geography stretching from China to Europe. But precisely because of this feature, just like the Middle East, its peace and stability are constantly targeted.

The Caucasus attaining stability as a whole, and the oil and natural gas here being delivered safely to Europe, China and India, could revive the peoples of this region.

In fact, looked at carefully, such a development, in which all countries that possess energy resources would come out ahead, is perceived as a threat by Russia, which wants to dominate the energy supply alone.

Thus a Caucasus that wrestles with unresolved issues and cannot integrate is seen by Russia as a way of establishing its own security. The problem created with Azerbaijan by supporting Armenia's occupation of Karabakh has worked as a perfect problem-solution that prevents Azeri and Kazakh oil from reaching Turkey and Europe via Turkey.

One of the participants of the meeting said that in this way, in effect, an Israel has been produced for the region out of Armenia and a Palestine out of Karabakh. In effect, a role similar to the one Israel and Palestine play for Middle East peace has been made to be played by Armenia in this way. Armenia, with the lands it occupies, forms a natural obstacle to the integration of the whole region.

Yet achieving this integration means pioneering the founding of a new world, and this opportunity exists on the horizon of cooperation between Turkey and Russia. That is why the paradigm needs to change. It is necessary to redesign one's own military or economic security not on preventing the development of documentary actors but on opening their way, on pioneering their opening.

Russia buys gas and oil from countries such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, although it has no need whatsoever to do so in order to form a monopoly over the oil supply, so that these countries do not feel the need to build their own alternative supply routes. This is very costly to Russia itself too, and because of this monopolistic logic it cannot undertake a leadership that inspires confidence in the peoples of the region. One of the alternative routes is the Caspian and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan.

Yet now there is a new conjuncture. A new world in which everyone comes out ahead will pass through cooperation between Turkey and Russia over the Caucasus. We have seen how the recent rapprochement and cooperation between the two countries opened the way to a solution in Syria that was welcomed with the appreciation of the whole world. This cooperation must be carried to a more strategic and more founding character than this level.

There is a multi-ethnic structure in the Caucasus, but cultural commonalities are greater... It makes no difference. Cultural closeness is no guarantee that cooperation will work better, and differences are no obstacle to living together. Europe, despite all its cultural commonalities, fought within itself for centuries, devouring one another. Today, despite all differences, it has put forward a practice of union that works perfectly well. There is no reason why the same should not happen in the Caucasus.

The Caucasus needs to be seen and treated not as an area of problems but as an area of opportunities.

SDE, with its renewed staff, has done a beneficial job in this field. In the two-day congress, it signed a productive event in which the past, present and future of the Caucasus were examined thoroughly with a strategic vision, with participants from all the Caucasus countries, led by Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan. May God see it continue.