Trump's Iran decision

US President Donald Trump has made his decision on a matter whose outcome had long been awaited with curiosity, and announced that he is withdrawing from the nuclear agreement signed with Iran during the Obama era. The simultaneous start of Israeli military operations in Syria, the statements coming from S. Arabia, and the military equipment sold before this decision to the Gulf countries on the US-S. Arabia axis bring a question to mind: Has the diplomatic conflict that has gone on with Iran for years now reached the point of turning into a hot war?

The accord reached in 2015 between Iran and the 5 permanent members of the UN plus Germany on Iran's nuclear program was a development that created great excitement in the international community and was regarded by many observers as the most important diplomatic success of the post-Cold War era. The agreement was meant to open the way for Iran's inclusion in diplomatic processes.

Indeed, after the agreement, which we can summarize as the easing of the sanctions imposed by the Western world in return for Iran making some concessions in its nuclear program, Iran concluded service and goods purchase agreements with various international companies and was represented at a high level on various platforms, the Syrian crisis foremost among them.

The nuclear agreement had also made Iran's contribution to regional crises much more moderate and constructive. Iran, which before 2015 had opposed every kind of diplomatic process on Syria, began to follow a more constructive policy on Syria with the self-confidence the agreement gave it. As a result of this policy it became one of the most important actors of the Astana process launched together with Russia and Turkey.

However, it was known that the agreement caused serious discomfort particularly in S. Arabia and Israel. Statements from both countries showed dissatisfaction and disappointment with the US policies toward Iran. In particular, Israeli Prime Minister Natenyahu, every time he was cornered in domestic politics (for example when his son's bribery scandal broke out), tried to consolidate domestic public opinion by talking about bombing Iran.

With the thought that, as a result of the understanding reached with Iran, they had brought under control the security problems that could emerge on their periphery, the EU countries too had been able to make a new ranking of priorities. At the point reached, it seems that all actors need to recalculate.

At this point the most basic question that comes to mind is the one we asked in the introduction: Is a hot war wanted? Or, why did the US take such a decision?

It can be said that there are three main reasons behind the US decision. The first seems to be related to the structure of the international system. After the substantial erosion of the US capacity to steer global politics alone, it began to be seen that regional systems would gain strength. In this framework, the regional system emerging in the Middle East around Russia, Iran and Turkey needed to be balanced somehow. Ultimately this decision created an alternative regional system around S. Arabia, Israel and Egypt against the regional system forming around Russia, Iran and Turkey.

The second important reason is the pursuit of drawing the petro-dollars of the oil-rich Gulf countries, which perceive a threat from Iran, into "safe" US banks, and of increasing arms sales to these countries through the artificial threat created.

The last point to be mentioned in this regard is the tensions in Transatlantic relations between the US and the EU that emerged after Trump became US president. Trump thought that the Iran agreement had made the EU's hand easier and reduced its need for the US. With the decision taken, the Iranian threat has returned for the EU countries. The return of this threat can be read as the US umbrella returning to the EU countries in some form, or expanding its sphere of influence.

Whatever the motive, it is clear that it will take our region into a process of instability. It is unacceptable for the US to push Iran out of the system for its own interests. Therefore the process needs to start being handled again as diplomatic negotiations as soon as possible.