The referendum in Britain and the future of the EU

The referendum in the United Kingdom, whose result was awaited with curiosity, has concluded. The voters voted for their country to leave the European Union. With this, we can say a rather interesting picture has emerged. Before analyzing this picture, it is worth addressing the process leading up to the referendum.

First of all, it must be said that the campaigns run by both the supporters of leaving the European Union and the supporters of remaining in it were quite unsuccessful. The campaigns' beginning, especially after a certain point, to concentrate on Turkey, and the attempt to mobilize voters over Turkey's membership of the European Union, emerged as a consequence of the wrongness of the way the campaigns were conducted. The political parties campaigning for leaving the European Union argued that there is no place for Britain in a European Union that Turkey would join. That these political movements, which claim to be bearers of innovative or progressive values, stirred up an identity debate in England by creating a debate about Turkey, and tried to embody the rising anti-Islam sentiment through Turkey and turn it into political gain, revealed the unhealthiness of the campaign being run.

To this unqualified campaign, the governing party, instead of answering with a qualified campaign for a Yes to a European Union that foregrounds universal values, preferred again to develop arguments over Turkey. The statement "at this rate Turkey will only become a member of the EU in the year 3000," which we also criticized, was made by Prime Minister David Cameron to develop a measure against voters' tendency to leave the Union out of concern that Turkey would join the European Union.

Look at the irony of fate: Cameron's Conservative Party, which did everything it could to weaken the European Union and render European institutions ineffective, was obliged to defend the European Union, and moreover to defend it using an extremely primitive and crude method and jargon. The result of this bad campaign was defeat. According to news arriving as this article is being prepared, David Cameron has announced that he will leave office by October 2016.

So what will happen next? As we said above, the referendum result may in fact bring out quite interesting new developments. Looking at the United Kingdom as a whole, the statistics that emerge present a picture diametrically opposite to the statistics appearing in other units belonging to the United Kingdom such as Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Across the country, 52% voted for England to leave the European Union while 48% voted for England to remain in the European Union. But when the country's administrative units are compared, the situation becomes quite complicated. Namely, in Scotland 62% of voters voted to remain in the European Union while 38% voted to leave the European Union. In Northern Ireland, too, pro-EU voters lead by 52% to 46%. This seems likely to raise again the question of whether the United Kingdom will break apart.

After the referendum, the nationalist movement Sinn Fein in Ireland, in a statement, called for a referendum on a united Ireland. Declan Kearney, one of the party's leaders, also stated that as a result of the referendum a United Kingdom that will leave the European Union will lose its ability to represent Northern Ireland, giving signs of a new separation campaign.

Similar debates are taking place in Scotland, which voted No to leaving the European Union in the referendum. It will be recalled that a separation referendum was held in Scotland in September 2014, and as a result the decision was to continue to remain within the United Kingdom. In line with the new development, the nationalist movement SNP, which had campaigned for leaving the United Kingdom in the 2014 referendum, announced that the Scottish people see their future in the EU, that a Britain that will leave the EU cannot represent Scotland, and that the referendum results may bring a new separation referendum onto the agenda in Scotland.

Another matter accompanying the debates on Britain's breakup is how the European Union will take a stance on this referendum result and how the future of the European Union will take shape. It can be said that the referendum result is a negative situation for EU leaders. Expectations are gathered in two main groups.

The first is that in the next two years, which will pass as Britain's process of leaving the European Union, the EU may make a number of concessions to Britain and keep it in the union. But the share of those expecting this is quite low. Because in such a case European Union leaders think that referendums on leaving the EU cannot be prevented and that it would be encouraging for separatist movements in all countries. Therefore, in order to maintain the integrity of the union, a tough stance against Britain is anticipated.

The second is those who state the view that Britain's leaving the European Union at the end of the two-year period will be accepted and that there will be no negotiation with Britain. In Europe these days those in this second group are many, but the question they have difficulty answering is whether, after Britain's departure, the EU will come entirely under the control of Germany and France.

Whatever happens, it can be clearly said that the British people have voted on the future of the EU. This vote concerns the EU as much as it concerns Turkey, which is in membership negotiations with the EU. As we have said before, Turkey is the only country that can save the EU from the chaotic situation it has fallen into and give confidence to EU peoples by putting EU values into practice. But if the current situation toward Turkey continues, there may be no European Union in the next few years.