Turkey on the threshold of a new global order: a rising power in multi-layered crises

Many signs have appeared that we are on the threshold of a new global order. This global order will undoubtedly take shape in a process in which all the contradictions and dynamics of the old order will be re-evaluated after a contest. The world is passing through a period of rupture in which the long-familiar balances of power are dissolving, new alliances are taking shape, and regional crises are redefining the global geopolitical architecture. The hardening of U.S.-China rivalry, the shaking of Europe's security architecture by the war in Ukraine, the deepening of conflicts in the Middle East, and Africa's increasingly becoming the stage of struggles for international influence carry the international system to a threshold full of uncertainties. Although the signs of all this uncertainty had appeared very clearly beforehand, the waves of impact of the Al-Aqsa Flood that began on October 7, of the genocidal aggression Zionist Israel launched against it, and of the tremendous resistance the people of Gaza displayed against that, keep shaking these balances in a state of continuous earthquake. We can foresee that these tremors will fling powers toward unexpected poles and even create new poles. In such a milieu, where the cards are reshuffled and the poles re-formed, Türkiye's strategic importance is also rising rapidly. Ankara's influence, mediation or military-diplomatic weight is now felt in almost every crisis file on a global scale. There is almost no equation in which Türkiye is absent.

Gaza is undoubtedly a subject that dramatically brings forward Türkiye's moral and political weight in international diplomacy. The continuous state of earthquake experienced because of Gaza seems set to remind both Türkiye itself and the whole world, like many other things in the world, of Türkiye's historical, cultural and identity ties with Palestine, Syria, Lebanon and the Middle East in general. When these ties, neglected after a loss of memory, are remembered, Türkiye's confronting its own past will be inevitable. Perhaps Turkish history too will have to be rewritten. Without doubt, up to that point or in parallel with that point, Türkiye, with its emphasis on humanitarian corridors, ceasefire and international law, stands out as an effective normative power both in the global South and in the Islamic world and in

humanitarian discourse directed toward the West.

In the face of the grave humanitarian picture in Gaza, Türkiye takes an active role in shaping the process with both diplomatic pressure and humanitarian aid mechanisms. This stance makes Türkiye a moral-political reference point not only regionally but globally. But matters do not stop at this point: Zionist Israel, the perpetrator of the inhuman picture in Gaza, does not stop there either, and makes Türkiye, and Türkiye's new strong ally Syria, targets of its aggression. A confrontation is becoming inevitable here. It is very clear that this confrontation, which will take place sooner or later, will not remain only between Türkiye and Israel. Israel begrudges the Syrian people the peace they have found for the first time in 60 years, and by viewing this peace as a threat to itself it forcibly creates the very threat against itself. As long as this paranoid approach of Israel is a feature of its very existence, this conflict must be regarded as inevitable. However many peaceful development visions we put forward for Türkiye and the region, this problem stands in the middle of that vision as a big fishbone. Truly, this problem, this possibility of a great war, has to be seen as a part of the Türkiye vision before us.

Its position in the Ukraine-Russia war is also an important field of realization for Türkiye's new vision. From the very first moment of the war, Ankara has obtained a unique diplomatic position as one of the rare countries that is both a NATO member and keeps channels of dialogue with Russia open. The meticulous implementation of the Montreux Convention, the prevention of warships' entry into the Black Sea, the negotiated grain corridor through which millions of tons of food reached world markets, and Türkiye's playing a central role in prisoner exchanges have made the country virtually the war's indispensable diplomatic actor. Within this framework Türkiye has stood out as the rare power able to manage the strategic balance between the West and Russia, and to protect both security and diplomatic channels at the same time.

In Syria, what is at issue is not only the 60-year Baath or Assad rule, but a new picture that has emerged after a period of a century. In this picture Türkiye has secured an effective and prestigious entry, through a very wide door, into a geography from which it was forced to withdraw a hundred years ago. With this style of entry and with its capacity, Türkiye's influence will not remain confined to Syria alone but will spread across the entire Middle East. Today, in every discussion on Syria's future, Ankara's stance holds a determining place; no actor, Washington and Moscow included, can ignore Türkiye's weight on the ground and at the table.

Similarly in Iraq, the new cooperation mechanisms established especially along the Baghdad-Erbil line are carrying Türkiye to the position of an indispensable regional partner not only in the field of security but also in terms of energy corridors and border trade. Increasing coordination with the Baghdad administration, the Development Road Project and energy agreements ensure that Türkiye takes a central place in Iraq's reconstruction.

In the Caucasus, relations with Azerbaijan are another area in which Türkiye's strategic importance has grown. The strong support given to Azerbaijan in the Karabakh war radically changed the balances in the South Caucasus and began a process that made Türkiye a partner in the region's security architecture. With a new period beginning after 2023, when Karabakh passed completely under Azerbaijan's control, topics such as the Zangezur corridor, regional trade routes and integration with the Turkic world have made Türkiye the key country on Eurasia's east-west economic-strategic route.

In Libya, Türkiye's support since 2019 for the legitimate government has prevented the country from being torn apart in civil war and has fundamentally changed the Eastern Mediterranean equation. Through military advisory, training and maritime jurisdiction agreements, Libya has become a partner strengthening Türkiye's position in the Eastern Mediterranean energy equation. If a lasting peace in Libya is spoken of today, Türkiye's effective intervention is at its foundation.

On the African dimension, first of all Somalia is like a symbol of the new foreign policy vision Türkiye has been building since the 2010s. Across a wide range from education to security, from port operation to natural resource management, Türkiye-Somalia relations make Ankara one of the main actors in the geopolitical future of the Horn of Africa. Türkiye's role in the modernization of the Somali army is gaining ever more importance in the context of Red Sea security.

One of the most concrete examples of Türkiye's rising diplomatic activity in the Horn of Africa is the mediation role it undertook in the dispute that sharpened in 2024 between Somalia and Ethiopia. The controversial memorandum Ethiopia signed with Somaliland on sea access was perceived in Mogadishu as a threat to the country's territorial integrity and had given rise to a serious diplomatic crisis between the two countries. In this process Ankara became the only regional power invited by both Somalia and Ethiopia as a trusted and impartial mediator. The talks held in Ankara under Türkiye's hosting served a critical diplomatic facilitating function in lowering tensions, in the parties making direct contact, and in preventing the crisis from being carried to the dimension of military conflict. The intense contact traffic carried out by President Erdoğan and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs earned Türkiye, already an important actor in Somalia's security architecture, the role of "indispensable mediator" in the Horn of Africa's most complex geopolitical equations. This experience showed once more that Türkiye is not only a partner building military and institutional capacity in Somalia, but also a diplomatic center inspiring confidence in the management of regional crises.

The civil war in Sudan also makes Türkiye's diplomatic capacity on the continent visible again. The contacts maintained with both Khartoum and the neighboring actors, the humanitarian aid initiatives and the efforts to draw the parties into negotiation strengthen Türkiye's "solution-producing" image in Africa. Since Sudan is a geography where Egyptian, Ethiopian and Gulf rivalries intersect, Türkiye's balancing and diplomatic role here carries an importance affecting the whole continent.

Looking at all these areas together, Türkiye emerges not merely as a regional power but as an indispensable actor in the multilayered crises that are reshaping the international system. In this period, in which global ruptures multiply, new power blocs form, and energy, trade routes and security architecture are redefined, Türkiye, with its geographic, political and diplomatic capital, is advancing toward being one of the founding elements of the new order.

It is now almost inconceivable to imagine an equation in which Türkiye is not involved on such headings as world peace, energy security, migration management, the fight against terrorism, trade routes, humanitarian aid mechanisms and the resolution of regional crises. This shows that Türkiye's global role is not a temporary conjunctural rise but is becoming a permanent parameter of the new international system.