Who can normalize, and how, with an abnormal Israel?

One of the most important effects of the Al-Aqsa Flood is that the so-called "normalization" process with Israel, which was proceeding at full speed, has been thwarted. We say so-called because, in fact, Israel's only expectation of normalization is that all the Arab-Islamic countries of the Middle East pledge allegiance to it and remain silent about its inhuman occupying policies.

The process launched in 2020 under Trump's leadership in fact envisaged that the countries joining this alliance would diplomatically recognize Israel, open embassies, develop mutual trade, tourism, investment, technology, health, agriculture and security cooperation, begin air transport and direct flights, and adopt a more moderate stance on the Palestinian question that supports the vision of a two-state solution. The new order of relations on this horizon was to be called "normalization." However, it was already clear that it would be far more difficult, even impossible, for Israel rather than the Arab countries to comply with these conditions. Because it would not be possible for Israel to actually accept the vision of a two-state solution on the Palestinian question, which was the last clause of the agreement; but this was to be the last clause of the agreement anyway, that is, first "normalization," and then it would be this matter's turn, which would never come, since by the time the normalization process was completed, as a result of Israeli expansionism that was meanwhile continuing, there would be no place called Palestine left, so a fait accompli would have been created.

We cannot know what Trump's intention and plan were, but in this process this was Israel's intention and plan. Unfortunately, many Arab countries joined this process or were forced to join. The UAE and Bahrain were quite willing in joining this agreement. In Sudan, amid the instability experienced in the country in 2019 with UAE support, normalization was imposed on a transitional government not elected by the people and whose life had not lasted even a year, with the promise of lifting some international sanctions. Morocco was another to formally join this agreement.

In recent days, however, a billboard published in the streets of Tel Aviv by an organization called the Regional Security Coalition showed the leaders of many countries that have not joined this agreement as if they had, and thus a rosy dream was built in the name of Israel. It may perhaps be seen as a morale cure to which an Israel, disgraced for 640 days in Gaza by a handful of Qassam Brigades fighters since October 7 and shattered right after the 12-day war, clings, but the situation is currently far from what this billboard reflects.

First of all, the October 7 Al-Aqsa Flood has driven all the leaders on this billboard leagues away from this agreement. Even those who formally joined the agreement are being forced to review their positions in the face of Israel's present state. Saudi Arabia has already announced that it does not want the Abraham Accords to be raised again until the Palestinian question is resolved.

LIKING THE PROSPECT OF AHMED AL-SHARAA NORMALIZING WITH ISRAEL

For the leaders of Iraq, Oman and Palestine on that billboard to establish contact with Israel in today's or a near and medium-term conjuncture is nothing but raw fantasy. Yet none of the names on this billboard, so far from reality, drew attention like Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Circles that from the start have been very fond of the possibility that al-Sharaa is a figure supported by the US and Israel against the so-called "axis of resistance" immediately seized upon this billboard as an absolute reference confirming their obsessions.

The billboard was treated as an official list of names that had formally joined the Abraham Accords. Yet this billboard is no such thing; it has no official party whatsoever. It is an optimistic dream of the future for Israel set up by a civil formation in Israel called the Regional Security Coalition. According to its official web pages, this organization "was founded about a year after October 7 and represents a large number of public figures and opinion leaders from diverse segments in the fields of security, diplomacy, business, high technology and research, who have come together to support the 'Abraham Shield Plan' aimed at ensuring Israel's security. The Coalition brings together various institutions, research institutes and organizations that believe in the need for a new political-security vision combining military, political and economic power. This vision foresees making use of regional opportunities and using those opportunities as leverage as the primary way of strengthening Israel's security."

It is known that Trump and earlier US representatives advised al-Sharaa to join the Abraham Accords. But al-Sharaa gave no positive answer in any meeting; on the contrary, he said that it is not possible to take any normalization step with Israel in a situation where Israel has occupied Syria's lands. Moreover, the US side said that no such condition was imposed on al-Sharaa; it was only recommended.

The real step that would change al-Sharaa's stance should have come from Israel. For instance, there has been no statement that it will leave the Golan it occupied and the buffer zones, created under the 1974 agreement, that it occupied right after the revolution, and it seems impossible that there will be. Unless Israel withdraws from the lands it has occupied, it is impossible for Syria to take a step of normalization with Israel.

In fact, the real resistance or incompatibility with the normalization in Trump's mind comes not from the Arab countries but from Israel. Relations with Assad were perfectly normal, that is, just as it wanted. It perceived no threat from Assad. For Israel, a normal administration in Syria could be a minority rule keeping its people under repression, oppression and torture, a profile to which the Assad and Baath regime was perfectly suited. After Assad went, Syria moved leagues away from the vision of normalization. An administration supported by its own people and seeking to stay in power by democratic means is a real threat to Israel. Because Israel is not a normal country. How could normalization be possible with a country that is abnormal, extraordinarily out of the ordinary and exceptional by all diplomatic or humanitarian standards? Can the most perverse-obsessive and criminal country in world history be normalized by the extraordinary efforts of so many countries?

Perhaps, in spite of everything, this might have seemed possible on the horizon of the world and Middle Eastern order before October 7, but the Al-Aqsa Flood, like many things, swept this horizon away too. Now in Israel this horizon may be remembered as a nostalgic dream that appears on billboards. It will remain a dream, like their supposedly "promised" Zion, which they dream of and which no dragon of theirs will ever reach.

To those who, on the basis of al-Sharaa's being shown this way on this billboard, present him as part of Israel's plan, we can say that it would be enough for them to look at it without straying too far from the facts.