Aleppo: is the door to a solution in Syria opening?

The waters that had been flowing stagnant in Syria for years stirred again in recent days with the operations the opposition groups launched, starting from the countryside of Aleppo and moving toward the center. Of course, to say that the opposition groups launched these operations and to try to understand what has happened from this moment on may give rise to a false perception that attributes a measure of innocence to the regime and may cause what has been lived in Syria until now to be overlooked. Just as the Israeli oppression in Gaza did not begin on 7 October in reaction to the Al-Aqsa Flood of the Qassam Brigades. The Al-Aqsa Flood was not the beginning of events; it was a step taken by Palestinians, who until then had been trying to seize their freedom against Israeli oppression, in their struggle for survival. That is, it was not a cause, it was a result.

Today the movement that the Free Syrian Army, HTS and all the other opposition forces are carrying out in Syria by joining hands is likewise not a cause of the events that will be lived from now on, but an explosion of the anger they have accumulated against the oppression to which they have been subjected until now; that is, not a cause, a result.

The Syrian people, squeezed into the north of Syria, have relatives in the regime's dungeons from whom they have no news, together with all the lands and properties they were forced to abandon in Aleppo, Homs and Hama. After years of struggle, the temporary agreements reached between Turkey, Russia and Iran in Sochi or Astana in no way promised to improve the situation of the Syrians or to bring back their usurped rights. With the demographic operations Iran carried out by settling Shiite groups it brought from its own country and from Central Asia on the Syrians' usurped lands, especially in Aleppo, the occupation was being turned into a fait accompli. On the other hand, the regime was constantly committing violations against the control zones of the opposition groups, on which an understanding, even if temporary, had been reached in Sochi, and continued to create new de facto situations in these areas.

For some time there had been talk of an amnesty declared by Assad. But these were words whose content and reality were confirmed neither by Assad nor by any official source. These words served no purpose other than to create new pretexts for some racists in Turkey in their aggression against Syrians. After all, there is not a single example of a Syrian who trusted in Assad's mercy, went to Syria, and was able to live there in safety without being arrested or directly killed.

The arrogance Assad displayed in response to this call by Erdoğan, who, weighing all possibilities in the atmosphere of Israeli aggression in Gaza and then in Lebanon, did what was very hard for himself and extended to Assad an olive branch he never deserved, showed that he has no place in any beneficial step for the Syrian people and even for the peoples of the region. Assad was in a position to see this as a historic opportunity for himself, but, although he in no way deserved such an approach, he could not take advantage even of this opportunity. Stranger still is that, apart from still being able to commit massacres in Syria and taking the people he keeps in his dungeons step by step to death through tortures, he has no power and no fighting value left.

In essence, Assad, who is responsible for the blood of 1 million of his own people, has no possibility of creating a stable situation in Syria or of taking any initiative that provides trust and security. On the contrary, knowing and experiencing that all he has done has gone unpunished, it was far more likely that he would do more of what he has done at the first opportunity.

That is why there was nothing to be surprised at in the fact that news of Turkey re-establishing relations with Assad stirred concerns rather than giving glad tidings among the Syrian people. For the Syrian people are still suffering from Assad and his regime.

On the other hand, nearly half of the three and a half million Syrians in Turkey are from the Aleppo region, and we insistently wrote that any formula that would enable the Syrians to go back must necessarily pass through Aleppo's leaving Assad's control (18 January 2023, "The path to a solution in Syria passes through Aleppo").

It was of course not necessary for this control to be in Turkey's hands. UN control would also have been sufficient. So that the physical safety of Syrians who would want to go to their own homeland could be ensured. When this is ensured, it is also very clear that the Syrians who came from the Aleppo side in particular will act, in order to claim their own possessions there, and even in defense against their own lands being handed over as booty to demographic elements brought from abroad.

In short, the only realistic solution for the return of Syrians, an issue that has not left the agenda in Turkey for years, is to make Aleppo trustworthy for its own people, particularly against the threats of the regime, Iranian and Russian elements. It would have been possible to do this, if not through Turkey, through the UN, but with neither happening, the Syrian people's own armed groups have set into motion to ensure it.

Aleppo's coming under the control of the Syrian people will without doubt be a very important development in the Syrian equation. If this can be ensured, it will already be possible for an important part of the Syrians in Turkey to go to their own country without being subjected to any pressure. Against the demographic surgery that has been attempted in this city over the last 11 years, Syrians' returning to their homes in order to claim their own lands can also be encouraged.

In mercy to Burak Ağalbay

We all belong to Him, from Him we came and to Him we shall return. When, how, before or after which of our tasks? The decision is His, being and time are His. The journey in this world of our dear brother Burak Ağalbay, one of the valued colleagues of Tezkire Magazine and a faculty member of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Mardin Artuklu University, came to an end at a young age and he reached union with God. Abundant mercy from God to Burak; I offer condolences and patience to his family, all his friends and those who loved him. May his abode be paradise, his station exalted!