The revolt in Deir ez-Zor and the end of the US's YPG-centred Baath project

In recent days the clashes between local Arab tribes and the YPG in Syria's Deir ez-Zor region quickly turned into the sweeping of the YPG out of an important area. That the YPG forces, in fleeing the region rapidly in a short time, left no trace behind them, struck faces with what was in fact a shocking reality about how rootless they were in an area left to their administration.

To tell the truth, it is more accurate to see what happened not as a clash but as a revolt of the Arab tribes against YPG authority. Because the role given to the Arab tribes in the counter-terror coalition that the US has been trying to build in the region for years was nothing but swearing allegiance in subordination to the YPG units. That a structure to be formed against DAESH should be under the monopoly of a structure that is a PKK extension was, first of all, technically unsustainable. For although in the areas the US dominates Arabs demographically make up nearly ninety percent of the population, control was handed almost entirely to the YPG, as if the aim were to re-establish, between the YPG and the Arab tribes, the demography-power-representation balance of the Baath regime that has ruled Syria for sixty years.

As is known, the Baath regime in Syria can be summarized as the minority rule of the Nusayri population, a segment making up only 10 percent over a Syrian people 80 percent of whom are Sunni. Not only could this regime have no democratic side whatsoever, it was able to stay on its feet for 50 years through a very bloody despotism. With the coalition the US formed in the name of fighting DAESH, the same demographic power balance is being attempted in the areas it controls inside Syria. There is not the slightest chance of its proceeding while meeting any criterion of democratic participation. So there is no possibility of its being sustained other than by backing the privileges given to the JPG with very powerful armed instruments of coercion. Yet the US at the same time claims at least a minimal democratic participation and representation in these areas, and was making promises about this to the Arab tribes and to world public opinion.

Yet until now the spoiled YPG partner of this coalition had filled all levels of administration and, as well as dominating the military institutions, was accused of exclusionary policies, malicious practices, arbitrary arrests of the local population, lack of protection against ISIS, and economic abuses. These grievances were always there, but the visible cause of the uprising we have witnessed in recent days is the arrest by the YPG, during a meeting in Hasakah, of representatives of the Arab tribes and head of the Military Council, Rashid Abu Hawla. One of Abu Hawla's men was killed by the PKK/YPG during the arrest.

Perhaps this was the last straw that broke the camel's back. But as it appears, although the coalition, which the US could base on no justification other than the so-called fight against DAESH, has above all lost its reason for existence, this threat is being kept constantly alive, and against this threat the YPG is given excessive privileges as the favorite ally/actor. That the YPG be enabled to set up, this time as a Kurdish-centered structure, the Baathist demographic regime that the Syrian people are already fed up with may perhaps be possible up to a point, but it is not possible to sustain it.

What is disturbing here is essentially not the Kurds taking part, according to their own demographic situation, as free and equal actors in some order. On the contrary, it is that the Kurds are given a privilege of influence and representation far greater than their population, that they are given, even if in a certain region, the role of the Baathist Nusayris.

Today the ambiguity of the role the US plays inside Syria and the mission it fulfills is in fact seriously questioned in American circles too. Long before this revolt of the Arab tribes, it was being said that the structure put forward under the name of Syrian Democratic Forces had in fact no meaning other than the spoiling of the YPG. Such a structure is seen as bound to burst in the atmosphere of discontent launched against Assad. Such an order has no chance of staying on its feet even a single day after the US withdraws. That is why the revolt of the Arab tribes is this time seen in American circles too as a serious warning and an opportunity for policies to be reviewed.

The warnings that Türkiye has been making from the start can now be heeded on this matter. Türkiye has drawn attention from the start to the dangers of operations that would tamper with the demographic structure of the region's peoples. Since the time of Hafez al-Assad it has not given up the stance it took against the treatment of Kurds as second-class citizens inside Syria.

That is, being against the establishment of a new Baath regime through the YPG has nothing to do with the Kurds. Saying that an administration to be formed in the region must take demographic balances into account never means saying that the Kurds can be neglected. On the contrary, the Kurds are an inseparable part of the Syrian people, just as they are an inseparable part of Türkiye.

But what the US is doing here is not protecting the Kurds but throwing them into the line of fire; giving them, where they are a minority, the role of controlling a majority population will gain the Kurds nothing in the long run, it will only have spoiled the chemistry that ensures their living together with the peoples of the region.

That the YPG forces were swept out of the place they dominated in a short time with the revolt of the Arab tribes, and that nothing was left behind them, must be the clearest warning for the US and for everyone who makes calculations over the region.

Condolences to Mustafa Kahraman

Inna lillahi wa inna ilayhi raji'un. I pray for God's mercy for Mrs. Yıldız, wife of our brother Mustafa Kahraman, the veteran and devoted Editor-in-Chief of the Yeni Şafak family, who lost his life in the flood disaster in Istanbul, and I offer condolences and patience to Mr. Mustafa and his children. May the whole Yeni Şafak family be consoled.