Air is free for Sisi, but water is expensive

Last week in Libya we saw Haftar, fleeing the pursuit of the GNA forces, take refuge with Sisi, together with Aguila Saleh, the head of the parliament in Tobruk. There, for the first time, they voiced the declaration of a ceasefire, which they had so far been unconvinced of and unwilling to approach despite all insistence, and a political solution that could be conducted with all parties in Libya. But they were late for this solution they were remembering for the first time.

In Libya, of course, the political process will ultimately work and the Libyan people will decide their own fate, but in this process there will be no place for Haftar, nor Aguila Saleh, nor Sisi, who, giving them every kind of support, set them against the Libyan people to fight.

Moreover, far from being a party to a political process, Haftar's status as a defendant to answer for the crimes against humanity he has committed will come to the fore. And in these crimes we are at a point where those who supported him also have to defend themselves.

In the Tarhuna region, most recently liberated from Haftar's forces, at least 8 mass graves were found. The great majority of those killed are children and women, and it is said that there is evidence they were placed in the graves alive. What business would a criminal who is so merciless even toward the civilians of his own people have at any table where the future of the Libyan people will be discussed?

GNA forces continue to cleanse Libya of Haftar's forces, and at this moment their struggle continues at the gates of Sirte. Sisi, who is anxiously insisting that things stop at this point, in a very surprising outburst during his visit to Air Force units the other day, said "the Egyptian army may carry out a military mission outside the country's borders if needed," and then used the expressions "Sirte and Jufra are a red line. No one but the Libyans will defend Libya. We are ready to help and support. Egypt's legitimacy to intervene in Libya has been established."

These statements, on the one hand, in fact confess that so far Egypt's activities in Libya have had no legitimacy whatsoever. On the other hand, they express for the first time such an open stance against Turkey's presence in Libya.

What could the legitimacy Sisi speaks of for his presence in Libya be? He speaks of Egypt's border with Libya and of the situation produced by the instability Libya finds itself in. However, a common border with Libya does not necessarily create a security risk for Egypt from there. On the contrary, at the moment it is Egypt that threatens Libya's security, not the reverse. It is not the case that there is currently no recorded threat, attack or terrorist infiltration from Libya toward Egypt. On the contrary, it is the Egypt run by Sisi that arms the former general Haftar, whom Egypt supports and who has no connection left with Libya, trains and places mercenaries beside him, and has him attack Libya directly. The Egypt run by Sisi since 2014 has made the Libyan people live through every kind of pain, massacre and instability with this attitude. Therefore, even if Libya has a right to intervene in Egypt on the ground that it poses a security threat right now, Egypt has no such right.

Moreover, Egypt has far more genuine enemies and problems that really threaten its borders at this moment. The construction of the Renaissance Dam that Ethiopia has built on the Nile, which accounts for 93 percent of Egypt's water resources, continues under Sisi's spectatorship. Israel has always been the real great threat to Egypt, which, since it could not overcome the serious security problems in Sinai, has now come to accept them as a chronic problem, and while there is no step it has taken against it so far, what is the meaning of this bravado toward Libya, and therefore toward Turkey, and how well does it fit with its own realities? As the saying goes, they are in no state even to drink their ayran...

It seems that what drives Sisi to such airs is precisely the deeper problems pressing him. The crisis with Ethiopia that has continued for many years has reached its peak with the start of water retention for the Renaissance Dam, and Sisi has no solution approach to offer. A serious water shortage awaits Egypt; he could at least have taken some measures against it in advance, but has not.

Sinai has now become a complete quagmire for Sisi, and in the final plan there is a Zionist Israeli plan that will operate there, and against this Sisi's hands are tied, or, on the contrary, he has neither an argument nor an effort to explain to his people the politics that facilitate these plans. Meanwhile, with an approach to the coronavirus that in no way befits a state, he is also a cause of serious unease in his society. This airs-opening in the face of these failures will of course not save Sisi, but, broke as he is, he seeks a consolation with his chin.

The other dimension of the matter is that no one is going to address him on Sirte and Jufra, which he has declared red lines. At present this subject is rather a matter of negotiation between Turkey and Russia.

There is no legitimate power to invite him to Libya. The activities he says he will carry out through the tribes on which he has pinned his hopes (arming, training and making them fight) will only swell the international criminal file a little further. The GNA, which the UN recognizes as legitimate, characterizes and rejects any intervention of his as an attempt at occupation.

Meanwhile, Egypt's direct intervention in Libya would require it to face both Algeria, which perceives the matter as a threat to its own security, and NATO, on account of Turkey.

Sisi has neither the power nor the nerve to risk this, but air is free, after all.

But even water is very expensive.