Is Israel trying to get out of the Gaza quagmire by attacking Iran?

Israel's "expected" attack on Iran has finally come, from an Israel that for nearly two years has been committing genocide in Gaza, trampling all of humanity's values and all the claims of modern civilization. What made this attack an "expected attack" is that Israel had announced for days, even months, that it would attack Iran; but this attack by Israel is not an attack belonging to a field of conflict between Iran and Israel in the language of power of a world in which Gaza is the most important issue. For Israel, which has for years regarded Iran as a threat (perhaps in line with the discourse of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which since its founding has advertised itself as a great threat against Israel), and which has a great and real problem like Gaza on its head, this attack means in a way nothing other than diverting attention elsewhere.

The attack on Iran is nothing but an exit move that Israel is making to get out of the Gaza quagmire in which it is stuck. That the Israeli army and intelligence, which have been reduced to rags despite a huge advantage in weapons, technology and power in a tiny region for nearly two years, attack Iran as an easy target in order to raise morale has become one of the most important routines of the war it has been waging against Gaza since 7 October. The Israeli army and intelligence, disgraced before Hamas, are practically restoring the Israeli legend with extremely successful operations against Iran. With pinpoint strikes carried out by about a hundred aircraft arriving hours in advance, it killed Iran's Chief of the General Staff, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, many generals and nuclear program experts. These attacks are events that will win it a great restoration of reputation, as the magnificent successes of Israeli intelligence rather than as indications of serious defense weaknesses inside Iran.

Of course, by turning attention from Gaza to Iran, Israel also pulls back together the political alliances it botched in the Gaza arena. Because the great international alliance formed against Israel over the Palestinian question does not show the same sympathy when it comes to Iran, and so opens, as it were, a new line of credit for Israel.

It is known that, neither in its crimes in Gaza nor in its war against Iran, Israel does not act only with its own power. But owing to the recent tensions between Netanyahu and Trump, and even to Trump's positive messages toward Iran, there was a significant chance given to the possibility that Israel would be left alone in its tension with Iran. Yet Trump's statements after the Israeli attack showed that Israel is not alone in its aggression against Iran either. Trump, who gave his first reaction to the event by saying "I was informed about the attacks in advance, no surprise; but the US is not militarily involved in the event and we hope Iran will return to the negotiating table soon," did not later hesitate to describe the attack as "excellent" and to say he fully supported it.

Undoubtedly, Trump's saying that the US military is not involved in these attacks, followed by his inviting Iran to return to nuclear agreements, is a process of somewhat gathering up what Israel has scattered. After all, despite all its destructive power and attacks, Israel has no capacity to enter a total war with Iran. Even if all precautions have been taken against Iran's capacity to retaliate, the total destruction of Iran is not aimed at either, and to balance this situation the US must continue its founding role. Despite all this chaotic appearance, the US has a balance it maintains in the region among Israel, the Gulf countries, Iran and Turkey, and it does not want this balance to be broken by an outcome in which one of them is totally destroyed. This balance somehow enables the US to continue the regional status quo and to come out the winner in every case.

Israel does not want a total war, but does Iran, despite the attacks it has suffered? Of course Iran too has no capacity to sustain such a war against Israel, but it is also quite hard for it to swallow the attack it has suffered. In fact, Iran's capacity to retaliate against Israel, when it cannot show any presence against Israeli warplanes roaming in the airspace of its own country, ceases even to be a matter of curiosity. Even so, Iran's legend withdrawing from the Middle Eastern equation in this way is not easily acceptable in terms of the US's founding balances. Intensive diplomatic initiatives will be needed to calm Iran and to persuade it not to retaliate. When these analytical sentences are lined up one after another an ironic situation emerges, we are aware, but that is precisely the situation.

To this picture it must also be added that, despite all its rightfulness, Iran has seen no international support against Israel's attack. Russia, with which it is an ally and acts together in many arenas, gave right at the start the message "we are not obliged to support Iran." China, although it approaches Iran at the level of strategic partnership, does not provide military support, and is not expected to in this event either. The Gulf countries, for their part, are already in a covert rapprochement with Israel.

On this matter it was again Turkey that gave Iran the clearest support. President Erdoğan, from his social media account, in reaction to Israel's attacks on Iran, pointed both to the crimes of Netanyahu and the Zionist state as a network of massacre, and to the timing of this attack in the midst of its crimes in Gaza, and while condemning, also conveyed his condolences to the Iranian people:

"Israel's attacks on our neighbor Iran are a blatant provocation that disregards international law. These attacks, carried out at a time when negotiations on Iran's nuclear program have intensified and international pressure has grown in the face of the inhumane acts directed at Gaza, show Israel's rule-defying mentality. The Netanyahu administration is striving to drag our region and the whole world into catastrophe with its reckless, aggressive and lawless acts. The international community must now say 'stop' to Israeli banditry that targets global and regional stability… Today we once again state that we do not wish to see more blood, destruction and conflict in the Middle East. As Turkey, we condemn the vile attacks carried out against our neighbor Iran; we wish God's mercy upon those who lost their lives and a speedy recovery for the wounded, and we convey our condolences to the friendly and brotherly Iranian people."