What will Raisi's death lead to?

The death of the Islamic Republic of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, together with the Foreign Minister, the Friday Imam of Tabriz and the Provincial Governor, in an unfortunate helicopter accident fell like a bomb on a world that was already uncertain and turbulent enough. That such important figures of state were travelling in the same helicopter, and moreover in weather conditions that could be considered risky for any flight, is of course a peculiarity that draws attention in connection with this accident at first sight. They had, it is true, made the outbound trip in the same helicopter with the same passenger list, and the accident occurred on the return leg. Even so, an incident involving death brings to mind all the more strongly, in retrospect, all the possibilities that attribute every negligence and fault to intent, and indeed to assassination. Indeed, from the moment the incident was heard of, this is the subject people have thought about and debated most.

Looking at the commentary that this incident, which led Raisi and the delegation with him to their deaths, cannot have been an accident, there is all the data to support their theses. In Iran this kind of trip is extremely routine even for state dignitaries, and perhaps gives a picture of many things being got through by leaving them to chance, with the fatalism attributed to the East. An approach that risks carrying the country's most important names, at night, over a foggy, mountainous and difficult geography, in a helicopter produced in 1979 and probably not regularly maintained, cannot be thought of independently of intent, indeed of assassination.

From the moment the possibility of assassination is looked at with certainty, eyes will of course turn to the usual suspect. By the same logic, it will be taken for certain that Israel is behind this assassination. For years Israel has not refrained, at every opportunity, from openly displaying hostility toward Iran, and even from showing this hostility with open aggression. Most recently, on 1 April, it bombed the Embassy in Damascus and slaughtered some of its senior generals. Now, at the least, there is no lack of intent or purpose that would keep it from attempting such an assassination.

IS ISRAEL, DEFEATED ON 7 OCTOBER, THE USUAL SUSPECT?

However, there is a side to focusing on Israel as the usual suspect in this assassination that is far from credible, especially these days. The legend of Israel's famed intelligence power, MOSSAD, has collapsed as of 7 October. The Qassam Brigades levelled to the ground not only all the stories produced so far about MOSSAD's, but about the Israeli armed forces' operational capability in general. When these legends about Israel's power and capabilities collapsed, all that was left was incompetence, cowardice and intelligence impotence.

Since 7 October MOSSAD and the Israeli armed forces have become the laughing stock of the whole world. Their only superior aspect is their lethal, crude bombing power. Even this power is defeated every day, in a disgraceful manner, in ground warfare against the Qassam Brigades in Gaza. In such an environment, to have brought down Raisi's helicopter in Iranian airspace by assassination would be like granting a kiss of life to the Israeli legend. Does Israel have the capacity for such an operation? Without ruling out the possibility entirely, let us settle for saying what such a rumour might mean.

Raisi was undoubtedly one of Iran's important politicians. Otherwise he would not have been elected President. But not only because he was President, but both for his contributions to the Revolution in the past and for the roles expected of him in Iran's political balances in the future. He was regarded as the successor of the religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Therefore, if there is a possibility of assassination, the possibility that it came from within is much higher. But as far as can be seen, and this is also my personal opinion, this accident came about not so much from an assassination as from the helicopter's age and lack of maintenance and its having flown in those weather conditions with a fatalism peculiar to Iranians. Of course the other possibilities will be examined. But more important than this will be to examine where the movement that arises to fill the vacuum that will emerge in Iranian politics as a result of this accident will take both Iran and the region.

NOTHING WILL REMAIN AS IT WAS AFTER RAISI'S DEATH

Without doubt, after Raisi's death in this way, not only can nothing in Iran remain as it was, but this death will also have a serious effect on all the politics in the region. Raisi had a certain style of politics, and it will not be possible for this style to continue in the same way after his death, and after a death of this kind. The operations Iran carries out in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and many other places will be re-evaluated. The Iranian people are re-examining their own position in a changing world, and they will take a stance at the ballot box that has come before them unexpectedly and through such a tragic death.

Iran, whose tradition of mourning is very deep, is in grief at this moment. We offer our condolences to the Iranian people. The situation that has arisen against the challenge faced vis-à-vis Israel was in itself sad. The Iranian people are going through a heavy trial. I wish them patience.

At the moment the news of Raisi's accident reached the agencies, the news came that Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz had been taken to hospital. Change in the region is generally analysed and foreseen on the basis of what humans do, plan. Yet sometimes the divine hand drags events into other channels as an entirely unexpected, unplanned intervention.